Camilo Ugo Carabelli won. Smart money backed Igor Ribeiro Marcondes (3 ranked wallets, average entry 24¢) and lost. Volume $36k. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| mintblade | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| fishalive | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| GRIMDRIP | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| endlessFate | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 | Ron DeSantis 14% · Joe Kent 2% · Brian Kemp 1% | $2.6M |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | Yes 2% · No 98% | $1.5M |
| Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 | Jon Ossoff 26% · Andy Beshear 3% · James Talarico 3% | $1.5M |
| Presidential Election Winner 2028 | Jon Ossoff 18% · Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 13% · James Talarico 1% | $926k |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps increase 77% · No change 23% · 50+ bps increase 1% | $819k |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes 13% · No 88% | $692k |
| Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Xinyu Wang vs Antonia Ruzic | Xinyu Wang 42% · Antonia Ruzic 58% | $344k |
| Trump out as President before 2027? | Yes 3% · No 97% | $336k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| CandleHammerDrums | Camilo Ugo Carabelli | $302.70 |
| MadridTime | Camilo Ugo Carabelli | $150.50 |
| ferrariChampions2026 | Camilo Ugo Carabelli | $133.19 |
| Limousin | Camilo Ugo Carabelli | $121.83 |
| Venusian | Camilo Ugo Carabelli | $112.52 |
| pulse | Camilo Ugo Carabelli | $52.80 |
| 1lovejump | Camilo Ugo Carabelli | $30.16 |
| eFMBS | Camilo Ugo Carabelli | $25.55 |
| noosh1 | Camilo Ugo Carabelli | $23.46 |
| Eulhunter | Camilo Ugo Carabelli | $22.28 |
| lostwin | Camilo Ugo Carabelli | $20.75 |
| Nerdbet | Camilo Ugo Carabelli | $19.76 |
75 wallets held a position at the close. The 39 biggest winners took $1.1k; the 36 biggest losers gave up $2.3k. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
No ranked, Sharp or Whale wallet held this side.
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