Carlos Alcaraz won. Smart money backed Roman Safiullin (16 ranked wallets, average entry 16¢) and lost. Volume $1.1M. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| mintblade | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| fishalive | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| GRIMDRIP | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| endlessFate | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 | Ron DeSantis 14% · Joe Kent 2% · Donald Trump 1% | $2.1M |
| Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 | Jon Ossoff 28% · James Talarico 4% · Andy Beshear 3% | $1.6M |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | Yes 2% · No 98% | $1.5M |
| Presidential Election Winner 2028 | Jon Ossoff 20% · Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 13% · James Talarico 1% | $1.1M |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps increase 78% · No change 22% · 50+ bps increase 1% | $895k |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes 13% · No 88% | $655k |
| Taipei Mayor Election Winner | Chiang Wan-an 73% · Puma Shen 27% | $353k |
| Trump out as President before 2027? | Yes 4% · No 96% | $339k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| 0x1b34… | Carlos Alcaraz | $3k |
| Rico1234 | Carlos Alcaraz | $2k |
| 0x1c70… | Carlos Alcaraz | $1k |
| 0xa0f2… | Carlos Alcaraz | $941.40 |
| hulinali | Carlos Alcaraz | $708.60 |
| heheheh | Carlos Alcaraz | $580.80 |
| KevinEZM427 | Carlos Alcaraz | $527.27 |
| CVCM | Carlos Alcaraz | $506.25 |
| Selyvan55 | Carlos Alcaraz | $466.33 |
| Guccibala | Carlos Alcaraz | $448.65 |
| ananisto | Carlos Alcaraz | $404.51 |
| 0x0284… | Carlos Alcaraz | $396 |
423 wallets held a position at the close. The 60 biggest winners took $18k; the 60 biggest losers gave up $25k. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
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