Jan Kumstat won. Smart money backed Joel Schwaerzler (12 ranked wallets, average entry 53¢) and lost. Volume $147k. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| mintblade | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| fishalive | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| GRIMDRIP | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| endlessFate | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps increase 67% · No change 33% · 25 bps decrease 1% | $2.5M |
| Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 | Jon Ossoff 28% · Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 17% · Kamala Harris 4% | $1.2M |
| Presidential Election Winner 2028 | Jon Ossoff 21% · JD Vance 18% · Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 12% | $847k |
| Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 | J.D. Vance 38% · Marco Rubio 19% · Ron DeSantis 13% | $646k |
| Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Beijing Playoffs | PARIVISION 27% · Natus Vincere 73% | $541k |
| Worlds 2026: Winner | Gen.G 54% · Bilibili Gaming 25% · T1 17% | $466k |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? | Yes 43% · No 57% | $288k |
| Next French Presidential Election | Marine Le Pen 44% · Jean-Luc Mélenchon 13% · Dominique de Villepin 2% | $278k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| 0xf12f… | Jan Kumstat | $3k |
| CandleHammerDrums | Jan Kumstat | $3k |
| keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Jan Kumstat | $735.49 |
| Asknadapa | Jan Kumstat | $334.65 |
| TRCM | Jan Kumstat | $309.17 |
| daritlalifieldnfo | Jan Kumstat | $250.01 |
| Accomplished-Framework | Joel Schwaerzler | $181.04 |
| warehouse. | Jan Kumstat | $148.23 |
| truemagistion | Jan Kumstat | $130.94 |
| 0x0bdc… | Jan Kumstat | $127.94 |
| Skwezi | Jan Kumstat | $127.48 |
| 0x4209… | Jan Kumstat | $120.92 |
157 wallets held a position at the close. The 60 biggest winners took $9.8k; the 60 biggest losers gave up $32k. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
No ranked, Sharp or Whale wallet held this side.
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