Juan Manuel La Serna won. Smart money backed Hernan Casanova (9 ranked wallets, average entry 25¢) and lost. Volume $42k. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| mintblade | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| fishalive | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| GRIMDRIP | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| endlessFate | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 | J.D. Vance 33% · Joe Kent 2% · Donald Trump 1% | $1.6M |
| Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 | Jon Ossoff 27% · James Talarico 4% · Michelle Obama 1% | $1.2M |
| Presidential Election Winner 2028 | Jon Ossoff 20% · Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 13% · James Talarico 2% | $1.1M |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps increase 78% · No change 22% · 50+ bps increase 1% | $508k |
| Rolex Paris Masters: Ben Shelton vs Arthur Rinderknech | Ben Shelton 68% · Arthur Rinderknech 32% | $480k |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes 13% · No 88% | $465k |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | Yes 2% · No 98% | $418k |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? | Yes 55% · No 46% | $344k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| LightParadox | Juan Manuel La Serna | $620.58 |
| MadridTime | Juan Manuel La Serna | $558.07 |
| CandleHammerDrums | Juan Manuel La Serna | $362.85 |
| keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Juan Manuel La Serna | $205.96 |
| the1prophet | Juan Manuel La Serna | $110.29 |
| Venusian | Juan Manuel La Serna | $101.22 |
| Oulu18 | Juan Manuel La Serna | $80.80 |
| Limousin | Juan Manuel La Serna | $61.85 |
| alpheclabs | Juan Manuel La Serna | $59.24 |
| Jxtoas | Juan Manuel La Serna | $59.22 |
| sweetcaroline | Juan Manuel La Serna | $58.64 |
| Paul973973 | Juan Manuel La Serna | $40.82 |
121 wallets held a position at the close. The 60 biggest winners took $2.7k; the 55 biggest losers gave up $5.5k. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
No ranked, Sharp or Whale wallet held this side.
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