Francisco Cerundolo won. Smart money backed Jan-Lennard Struff (30 ranked wallets, average entry 42¢) and lost. Volume $808k. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| mintblade | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| fishalive | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| GRIMDRIP | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| endlessFate | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps increase 66% · No change 31% · 25 bps decrease 1% | $1.8M |
| Presidential Election Winner 2028 | Jon Ossoff 21% · JD Vance 19% · Kamala Harris 4% | $1.2M |
| Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 | Jon Ossoff 27% · Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 19% · Kamala Harris 5% | $1.1M |
| Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 | J.D. Vance 35% · Marco Rubio 22% · Joe Kent 1% | $714k |
| Rolex Paris Masters: Lorenzo Musetti vs Luca Van Assche | Lorenzo Musetti 64% · Luca Van Assche 36% | $538k |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | Yes 2% · No 98% | $399k |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes 13% · No 88% | $370k |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? | Yes 50% · No 51% | $360k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| AV23IUa | Francisco Cerundolo | $38k |
| Gourmet1 | Jan-Lennard Struff | $16k |
| 0xef1b… | Francisco Cerundolo | $14k |
| 0x5f65… | Francisco Cerundolo | $13k |
| Tantula | Francisco Cerundolo | $5k |
| ysysod | Francisco Cerundolo | $2k |
| darkumbreon99 | Francisco Cerundolo | $2k |
| 00XyXyzzyxzzqyej233j2j32h4h35 | Francisco Cerundolo | $1k |
| tinashi1199zz | Francisco Cerundolo | $805.01 |
| ShoveIsAllYouNeed | Francisco Cerundolo | $690.48 |
| ttpmmaker | Francisco Cerundolo | $689.02 |
| 0x8b27… | Francisco Cerundolo | $673.26 |
461 wallets held a position at the close. The 60 biggest winners took $99k; the 60 biggest losers gave up $40k. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
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