Yes won. Smart money backed No (2 ranked wallets, average entry 63¢) and lost. Volume $1.9M. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| mintblade | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| fishalive | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| GRIMDRIP | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| endlessFate | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps increase 73% · No change 27% · 50+ bps increase 2% | $175k |
| Fed Decision in January? | No change 70% · 25 bps increase 27% · 25 bps decrease 2% | $34k |
| Another Fed rate hike in 2026? | Yes 72% · No 28% | $28k |
| How many Fed rate cuts in 2026? | 0 (0 bps) 97% · 1 (25 bps) 1% · 2 (50 bps) 1% | $25k |
| Bank of Mexico Decision in November? | No change 87% · 25 bps decrease 12% | $17k |
| How many Fed rate hikes in 2026? | 2 (50 bps) 73% · 1 (25 bps) 28% · 3 (75 bps) 1% | $14k |
| Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in November | 25 bps increase 91% · No change 10% | $12k |
| Fed decisions (Sep–Dec) | Hike–Pause–Hike 74% · Hike–Pause–Pause 25% | $11k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| yungstalin | Yes | $9k |
| ThePrinceThatWasPromised | Yes | $9k |
| ethBELIVER | Yes | $9k |
| JonTay | Yes | $8k |
| Fulgurator | Yes | $6k |
| 0x2a5f… | Yes | $4k |
| TheyAreTakingTheHobitsToIsengard | Yes | $3k |
| 0x7726… | Yes | $3k |
| Adrink3D | Yes | $3k |
| Alphax0 | Yes | $2k |
| forgetfuldory | Yes | $2k |
| exothetajunkie | Yes | $1k |
1,390 wallets held a position at the close. The 60 biggest winners took $78k; the 60 biggest losers gave up $141k. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
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