Yes won. Smart money backed No (4 ranked wallets, average entry 7¢) and lost. Volume $91k. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
Contentious-Dinnerdate took +$254 on Yes from 89¢; the biggest loser gave up $180.
See every winner & loser ↗| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| mintblade | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| fishalive | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| GRIMDRIP | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| endlessFate | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Which company has the best AI model end of November? | Google 75% · Anthropic 21% · OpenAI 4% | $35k |
| When will Gemini Carbon be released? | November 9–November 15 81% · November 16–November 22 17% | $20k |
| How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026? | 0 87% · 1 9% · 2 2% | $14k |
| Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? | Yes 12% · No 88% | $10k |
| Gemini Carbon released on...? | November 10 43% · November 11 24% | $7k |
| Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026? | Yes 12% · No 89% | $7k |
| Third-Best Chinese AI Company end of November? | Moonshot 35% · Alibaba 24% · Z.ai 20% | $6k |
| GPT Astra 6.1+ released on...? | November 12 26% · No release by November 30 15% | $6k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| Contentious-Dinnerdate | Yes | $254.22 |
| notssf3 | Yes | $133.32 |
| 0xef97… | Yes | $51.47 |
| melonmanm | Yes | $49.20 |
| Banditoes | Yes | $25.71 |
| qmmar | Yes | $18.14 |
| Lord-Of-Democracy | Yes | $11.76 |
| 0xf9b5… | Yes | $9.52 |
| Giorgio2 | Yes | $9 |
| parameter1 | Yes | $8.41 |
| Dav1d10 | Yes | $7.24 |
| 8tSnjSWgyo26Gxt | Yes | $6.86 |
129 wallets held a position at the close. The 60 biggest winners took $684; the 60 biggest losers gave up $1.0k. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
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