0xae91ec7354e12acb90922e9b7abdf6fc471f0f69
parameter1 has made $1.8k on Polymarket across 1,669 markets, winning 61% of the ones that resolved. Other is the strength: $1.3k over 457 positions. Right now it holds 125 open positions worth $4.0k, the largest on “Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1…” (No). It spreads small stakes widely, about $53 per market. Full profile on Polynyx ↗
| Market | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1600 by December 31? | No | 190 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 167 |
| Will Moonshot have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? | No | 155 |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026? | Yes | 176 |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | Yes | 198 |
| Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? | No | 131 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480? | No | 125 |
| Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? | No | 110 |
| Will claude-opus-5.5-high be the best AI model on November 2, 2026? | No | 103 |
| Will Claude Fable 5.2+ debut at an output token price of at least $75 by June 30, 2027? | No | 97 |
| Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1650 by December 31? | No | 95 |
| Will Anthropic be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? | No | 93 |
| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| robustmst | $757k | $757k |
| hello.67 | $297k | $358k |
| 0x9506… | $22k | $110k |
| tompkins92 | $443.58 | $60k |
| TunSahur | $21k | $53k |
| BrettAutomatic | −$21k | $48k |
| physical-geographer | $25k | $41k |
| fildoro | $25k | $39k |
| frede13337 | $39k | $39k |
| MoneyForSky06 | $12k | $35k |
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