No won. Smart money backed Yes (15 ranked wallets, average entry 50¢) and lost. Volume $5.9k. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
tradetosurvive1 took +$374 on No from 44¢; the biggest loser gave up $635.
See every winner & loser ↗| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| mintblade | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| fishalive | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| GRIMDRIP | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $3.5M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| endlessFate | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| BreakTheBank | $7.9M | $4.1M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Skin cancer vaccine FDA approved by June 30, 2027? | Yes 14% · No 86% | $14k |
| Highest temperature in Tokyo on November 15? | 16°C 90% · 17°C 12% · 18°C 1% | $14k |
| Highest temperature in Wellington on November 15? | 19°C 63% · 18°C 34% · 20°C 3% | $12k |
| Highest temperature in Amsterdam on November 15? | 10°C 53% · 11°C 33% · 9°C 11% | $8k |
| Skin cancer vaccine BLA submitted by March 31, 2027? | Yes 64% · No 37% | $8k |
| Skin cancer vaccine FDA approved by December 31, 2027? | Yes 64% · No 37% | $8k |
| Highest temperature in Shanghai on November 15? | 19°C 55% · 20°C 34% · 18°C 9% | $8k |
| Highest temperature in London on November 15? | 12°C 43% · 11°C 40% · 13°C 11% | $7k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| tradetosurvive1 | No | $373.74 |
| ytghsd | No | $113.60 |
| bingus007 | No | $85.93 |
| dj30f383r09dg38foesa3tykj09 | No | $53.65 |
| kaxel78 | No | $52.55 |
| Haradwaith | No | $37.86 |
| haveagoodday | No | $33.30 |
| 0x4f1a… | No | $32.48 |
| LornaPredicts | No | $28.80 |
| NewDi | No | $28.50 |
| 1x6891589732cf8beaaf424b117d5c5c20919f6bb9 | No | $27.94 |
| OnlyLuckNoBrain | No | $26.84 |
140 wallets held a position at the close. The 60 biggest winners took $1.3k; the 60 biggest losers gave up $1.6k. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
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