What are the odds for “Iran leadership change by October 31?” on Polymarket?

No 99% · Yes 1%, on $798k of volume. The odds-history widget charts the last month; every number refreshes on your plan's cadence — 15 minutes on Hobby, every minute on Developer.

Who is the smart money on “Iran leadership change by October 31?”?

Smart money leans Yes (2 ranked wallets, average entry 5¢). The smart-money widget lists the ranked, Sharp and Whale wallets on each side with their shares, entry prices and track records; the 'follow' line summarises which side they favour.

Where does this data come from?

Polymarket odds, volume and liquidity from the public APIs, plus Polynyx's analytics layer: 500M+ on-chain fills rebuilt into wallet P&L, win rates and smart-money positioning, with arbitrage and market-maker bots filtered out.

Can I make this my own dashboard?

Yes. Use this template clones the six widgets into your account; change the window, add a wallet, filter the tape to one side, and publish it as a page of its own.

Politics · Geopolitics · live

Iran leadership change by October 31?

No 99% · Yes 1%. Smart money leans Yes (2 ranked wallets, average entry 5¢). Volume $798k, liquidity $83k. Trade it on Polymarket ↗

No
99%
Yes
1%
Volume
$798k
Liquidity
$83k

Smart wallets

Who holds each side.

Yes

6 wallets · 24,369 known shares

0xc3db…0f98whale
entry 6¢ · P&L $101k · win 41%
ethBELIVERwhale
entry — · P&L $377k · win 47%
ClearMove
entry 2¢ · P&L $29k · win 39%
Hugin-og-Munin
entry 13¢ · P&L $28k · win 50%
ddd1d43
entry 33¢ · P&L $492 · win 44%
asdf112d
entry 26¢ · P&L $446 · win 44%

More Geopolitics markets

FAQ

What are the odds for “Iran leadership change by October 31?” on Polymarket?: No 99% · Yes 1%, on $798k of volume. The odds-history widget charts the last month; every number refreshes on your plan's cadence — 15 minutes on Hobby, every minute on Developer.
Who is the smart money on “Iran leadership change by October 31?”?: Smart money leans Yes (2 ranked wallets, average entry 5¢). The smart-money widget lists the ranked, Sharp and Whale wallets on each side with their shares, entry prices and track records; the 'follow' line summarises which side they favour.
Where does this data come from?: Polymarket odds, volume and liquidity from the public APIs, plus Polynyx's analytics layer: 500M+ on-chain fills rebuilt into wallet P&L, win rates and smart-money positioning, with arbitrage and market-maker bots filtered out.
Can I make this my own dashboard?: Yes. Use this template clones the six widgets into your account; change the window, add a wallet, filter the tape to one side, and publish it as a page of its own.

Part of the Geopolitics Polymarket dashboard. Browse every live market or the top wallets. Prefer code? The same data is a REST API and MCP server.

Iran leadership change by October 31?

live

Iran leadership change by October 31? · odds, 1 month

Market & odds history

Current odds

Market & odds history

0.7%

Yes

Smart money by side · known shares

Smart money on a market

Tape · this market, $500+

Live trade tape

No trades match these filters in the current window.

Geopolitics markets by 24h volume

Live markets

Title	Outcomes	Volume24h	Liquidity
Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?	Benjamin Netanyahu 47% · Gadi Eizenkot 31% · Naftali Bennett 7%	$12.3M	$956k
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes 95% · No 6%	$328k	$172k
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes 98% · No 2%	$174k	$123k
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	Yes 91% · No 10%	$148k	$72k
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes 95% · No 6%	$135k	$150k
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 27?	Yes 100% · No 1%	$98k	$47k
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by December 31, 2026?	Yes 27% · No 73%	$98k	$35k
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes 19% · No 82%	$80k	$300k

Smart-money conviction · Geopolitics

Smart-money conviction