No won. Smart money backed Yes (4 ranked wallets, average entry 12¢) and lost. Volume $32k. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
jimbobianthethird took +$457 on No from 35¢; the biggest loser gave up $334.
See every winner & loser ↗| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| mintblade | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| fishalive | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| GRIMDRIP | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| endlessFate | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7? | Yes 99% · No 1% | $620k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | Yes 57% · No 43% | $246k |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes 11% · No 90% | $226k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? | Yes 85% · No 16% | $170k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? | Yes 19% · No 82% | $145k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026? | Yes 7% · No 94% | $79k |
| Iran leadership change by November 30? | Yes 4% · No 96% | $70k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 15? | Yes 60% · No 41% | $69k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| jimbobianthethird | No | $457.36 |
| LJa7io23MCv954j | No | $237.85 |
| ragutwo | No | $126.26 |
| Vecellio | No | $93.03 |
| Aleksei-Ivanovich | No | $83.88 |
| 0xQuazar | Yes | $81.21 |
| Ofek4643 | No | $76.64 |
| Konfucious | No | $74.86 |
| 0x8b5a… | No | $71.19 |
| POB-T | No | $56.24 |
| Critical-Tea | No | $56.23 |
| rwcoffee | No | $47.71 |
188 wallets held a position at the close. The 60 biggest winners took $2.1k; the 60 biggest losers gave up $2.4k. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
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