No won. Smart money backed Yes (2 ranked wallets, average entry 12¢) and lost. Volume $49k. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
gambler-666 took +$411 on No from 40¢; the biggest loser gave up $1.1k.
See every winner & loser ↗| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| mintblade | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| fishalive | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| GRIMDRIP | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| endlessFate | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7? | Yes 99% · No 1% | $624k |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes 11% · No 90% | $251k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | Yes 57% · No 43% | $246k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? | Yes 85% · No 15% | $170k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? | Yes 20% · No 81% | $145k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026? | Yes 7% · No 93% | $85k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 15? | Yes 60% · No 41% | $70k |
| Iran leadership change by November 30? | Yes 4% · No 96% | $70k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| gambler-666 | No | $411.03 |
| CHIKI33 | No | $390 |
| CONGLU888 | No | $301.98 |
| Itaifab | Yes | $217.42 |
| Ofek4643 | No | $186.56 |
| ragutwo | No | $151.87 |
| PhysGuy | No | $127.32 |
| liel-liel-123 | No | $124.21 |
| KairoNexus | No | $119.09 |
| yenky | No | $118.82 |
| ToTheWindow | No | $103.19 |
| neetbets | No | $96.22 |
218 wallets held a position at the close. The 60 biggest winners took $3.4k; the 60 biggest losers gave up $5.5k. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
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