No won. Smart money backed Yes (5 ranked wallets, average entry 41¢) and lost. Volume $39k. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
nikandaoshenm took +$157 on No from 64¢; the biggest loser gave up $128.
See every winner & loser ↗| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| mintblade | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| fishalive | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| GRIMDRIP | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| endlessFate | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7? | Yes 99% · No 1% | $624k |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes 11% · No 90% | $251k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | Yes 57% · No 43% | $246k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? | Yes 85% · No 15% | $170k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? | Yes 20% · No 81% | $145k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026? | Yes 7% · No 93% | $85k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 15? | Yes 60% · No 41% | $70k |
| Iran leadership change by November 30? | Yes 4% · No 96% | $70k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| nikandaoshenm | No | $156.60 |
| qaz1234567890 | No | $118.27 |
| AYTLS | Yes | $90.24 |
| 0x5f3e… | No | $60.60 |
| Sacha1626 | No | $41.46 |
| 0xd677… | No | $40.60 |
| Metapoli | No | $34.07 |
| alphatango2 | No | $25.30 |
| sueusz | No | $22.36 |
| Mewpa | Yes | $21.57 |
| KrdRL | No | $20.87 |
| xecun | No | $19.95 |
172 wallets held a position at the close. The 60 biggest winners took $903; the 60 biggest losers gave up $1.2k. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
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