Yes won. Smart money backed No (1 ranked wallet, average entry 17¢) and lost. Volume $968k. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| 0x96cf… | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| 0xed64… | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| 0x3f87… | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| 0x5e4c… | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2? | Yes 72% · No 28% | $977k |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes 18% · No 83% | $561k |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 3? | Yes 2% · No 98% | $297k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | Yes 39% · No 61% | $223k |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | Yes 2% · No 98% | $207k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026? | Yes 11% · No 89% | $132k |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | Yes 5% · No 96% | $127k |
| Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | Yes 46% · No 55% | $115k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| poorguyy | Yes | $6k |
| eightpenguins | Yes | $3k |
| bernardiii | Yes | $2k |
| 02TomWilson | Yes | $906.77 |
| jackylove | Yes | $609.17 |
| 859043957459 | Yes | $590.22 |
| airdropper2 | Yes | $467.27 |
| tinytouns | Yes | $415.08 |
| Asphalt | Yes | $413.94 |
| AmericanIsraelPublicAffairsCommittee | Yes | $368.60 |
| patouossa | Yes | $367.88 |
| Rebecca-95 | Yes | $357.61 |
568 wallets held a position at the close. The 60 biggest winners took $23k; the 60 biggest losers gave up $12k. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
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