No won. Smart money backed Yes (3 ranked wallets, average entry 4¢) and lost. Volume $38k. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
Avamax took +$39 on No from 96¢; the biggest loser gave up $49.
See every winner & loser ↗| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| mintblade | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| fishalive | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| GRIMDRIP | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| endlessFate | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7? | Yes 99% · No 1% | $638k |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes 11% · No 90% | $249k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | Yes 57% · No 43% | $246k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? | Yes 85% · No 16% | $170k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? | Yes 20% · No 81% | $145k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026? | Yes 7% · No 93% | $83k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 15? | Yes 60% · No 41% | $70k |
| Iran leadership change by November 30? | Yes 4% · No 96% | $70k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| Avamax | No | $39.13 |
| Granddaughter | Yes | $31.29 |
| 0x5bd0… | Yes | $18.49 |
| 0xa1cc… | No | $14.81 |
| clazzy1 | No | $11.80 |
| narua | No | $10.55 |
| 0xe1a3… | Yes | $10.29 |
| Talophex | No | $8 |
| asdfedf | No | $4 |
| Revered | No | $4 |
| fresh | No | $2.53 |
| 0xeb79… | No | $2.31 |
38 wallets held a position at the close. The 20 biggest winners took $163; the 18 biggest losers gave up $129. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
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