No won. Smart money backed Yes (4 ranked wallets, average entry 20¢) and lost. Volume $31k. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
jci took +$38 on No from 84¢; the biggest loser gave up $440.
See every winner & loser ↗| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| mintblade | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| fishalive | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| GRIMDRIP | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| endlessFate | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7? | Yes 99% · No 1% | $644k |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes 11% · No 90% | $249k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | Yes 57% · No 43% | $245k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? | Yes 84% · No 16% | $169k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? | Yes 20% · No 81% | $153k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026? | Yes 7% · No 94% | $85k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 15? | Yes 60% · No 41% | $71k |
| Iran leadership change by November 30? | Yes 4% · No 96% | $70k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| jci | No | $37.90 |
| 0x89ad… | No | $31.94 |
| kevin404 | No | $15.34 |
| ElDonRamon | No | $14.44 |
| outkvst | No | $8.72 |
| usdcslow | No | $8.69 |
| RajahSingh | No | $8.33 |
| 0x5011… | No | $7.28 |
| 0x1676… | No | $6.60 |
| madgmblur | No | $5.83 |
| Milin-dc | No | $4.80 |
| Grokius | Yes | $4.61 |
61 wallets held a position at the close. The 30 biggest winners took $184; the 31 biggest losers gave up $1.2k. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
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