Yes won. Smart money backed No (4 ranked wallets, average entry 86¢) and lost. Volume $23k. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
cmarx took +$454 on Yes from 32¢; the biggest loser gave up $59.
See every winner & loser ↗| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| mintblade | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| fishalive | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| GRIMDRIP | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| endlessFate | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7? | Yes 99% · No 1% | $644k |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes 11% · No 90% | $249k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | Yes 57% · No 43% | $245k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? | Yes 84% · No 16% | $169k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? | Yes 20% · No 81% | $153k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026? | Yes 7% · No 94% | $85k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 15? | Yes 60% · No 41% | $71k |
| Iran leadership change by November 30? | Yes 4% · No 96% | $70k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| cmarx | Yes | $454.17 |
| jklsjdwoqejasdf | Yes | $201.22 |
| peterfromfamilyguy | Yes | $162.69 |
| KairoNexus | Yes | $99.84 |
| RajahSingh | Yes | $91.06 |
| melonmanm | Yes | $59.60 |
| Canaryquid | Yes | $44.00 |
| Mayito | Yes | $28.77 |
| christianbale1 | Yes | $27.67 |
| qaz1234567890 | Yes | $16.13 |
| Grocerystore. | Yes | $13.88 |
| ToTheWindow | Yes | $12 |
70 wallets held a position at the close. The 36 biggest winners took $1.3k; the 34 biggest losers gave up $333. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
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