Yes won. Smart money backed No (4 ranked wallets, average entry 13¢) and lost. Volume $68k. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
yuhyuhyuhy352352 took +$4.2k on Yes from 4¢; the biggest loser gave up $1.6k.
See every winner & loser ↗| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| mintblade | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| fishalive | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| GRIMDRIP | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| endlessFate | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7? | Yes 99% · No 1% | $624k |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes 11% · No 90% | $251k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | Yes 57% · No 43% | $246k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? | Yes 85% · No 16% | $170k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? | Yes 19% · No 81% | $145k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026? | Yes 6% · No 94% | $85k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 15? | Yes 60% · No 41% | $70k |
| Iran leadership change by November 30? | Yes 4% · No 96% | $70k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| yuhyuhyuhy352352 | Yes | $4k |
| TulipoII | Yes | $941.73 |
| Reidd | Yes | $487.44 |
| Ofek4643 | Yes | $268.04 |
| 0x47ac… | Yes | $138.08 |
| tomom1 | Yes | $105.26 |
| zunyi | Yes | $97.40 |
| hujimnkme | Yes | $95.83 |
| 0x8c97… | Yes | $92.94 |
| fgfhbbb | Yes | $83.50 |
| zuxnsz | Yes | $81.94 |
| shenqgbqibdjoa | Yes | $80.44 |
190 wallets held a position at the close. The 47 biggest winners took $7.2k; the 60 biggest losers gave up $4.3k. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
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