Yes won. Smart money backed No (6 ranked wallets, average entry 89¢) and lost. Volume $76k. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
Avamax took +$2.4k on Yes from 46¢; the biggest loser gave up $3.9k.
See every winner & loser ↗| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| mintblade | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| fishalive | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| GRIMDRIP | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| endlessFate | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7? | Yes 99% · No 1% | $620k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | Yes 57% · No 43% | $246k |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes 11% · No 90% | $226k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? | Yes 85% · No 16% | $171k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? | Yes 19% · No 82% | $152k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026? | Yes 7% · No 94% | $79k |
| Iran leadership change by November 30? | Yes 3% · No 97% | $70k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 15? | Yes 60% · No 41% | $69k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| Avamax | Yes | $2k |
| 0xf296… | Yes | $981.30 |
| eightpenguins | Yes | $783.05 |
| melonmanm | Yes | $589.45 |
| Raskell | Yes | $558.12 |
| 0xe665… | Yes | $334.58 |
| HornyBibi | Yes | $291.39 |
| Faston | Yes | $197.06 |
| yuhyuhyuhy352352 | Yes | $149.04 |
| RockyBro | Yes | $119.31 |
| residual | Yes | $113.63 |
| IwillRichSoon | Yes | $97.60 |
182 wallets held a position at the close. The 60 biggest winners took $7.4k; the 60 biggest losers gave up $9.0k. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
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