No won. Smart money backed Yes (15 ranked wallets, average entry 6¢) and lost. Volume $3.2M. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
0x267d… took +$2.8k on No from 93¢; the biggest loser gave up $6.3k.
See every winner & loser ↗| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| mintblade | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| fishalive | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| GRIMDRIP | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| endlessFate | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7? | Yes 100% · No 0% | $636k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? | Yes 85% · No 16% | $210k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | Yes 55% · No 46% | $176k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? | Yes 19% · No 82% | $169k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026? | Yes 6% · No 95% | $88k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 15? | Yes 61% · No 40% | $83k |
| Iran leadership change by November 30? | Yes 4% · No 96% | $71k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027? | Yes 66% · No 35% | $68k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| 0x267d… | No | $3k |
| jklsjdwoqejasdf | No | $3k |
| Specksalam | No | $2k |
| 0xdc83… | No | $2k |
| whig | Yes | $1k |
| Kris-Future | No | $1k |
| 0xdc9d… | No | $1k |
| tumbra | No | $993 |
| FFUGUI | No | $959.99 |
| Batundi | No | $912.88 |
| TimothyChalamet888 | No | $910.30 |
| Torn-Gingerbread | No | $608.47 |
872 wallets held a position at the close. The 60 biggest winners took $27k; the 60 biggest losers gave up $17k. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
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