Tariq Simons won. Smart money backed Mitchell Dobek (3 ranked wallets, average entry 33¢) and lost. Volume $300. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| mintblade | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| fishalive | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| GRIMDRIP | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| endlessFate | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 | Ron DeSantis 15% · Joe Kent 2% · Brian Kemp 1% | $2.6M |
| Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 | Jon Ossoff 26% · Andy Beshear 3% · James Talarico 3% | $1.6M |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | Yes 2% · No 98% | $1.5M |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps increase 78% · No change 23% · 50+ bps increase 1% | $962k |
| Presidential Election Winner 2028 | Jon Ossoff 18% · Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 13% · James Talarico 1% | $926k |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes 13% · No 88% | $694k |
| Trump out as President before 2027? | Yes 4% · No 96% | $332k |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? | Yes 52% · No 49% | $310k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| eFMBS | Tariq Simons | $57.96 |
| 0xa789… | Tariq Simons | $7.12 |
| tjab0n | Tariq Simons | $2.40 |
| SlickRick123 | Tariq Simons | $1.20 |
| 0xa177… | Tariq Simons | $1.10 |
| 0xakwz | Tariq Simons | $1.10 |
| HxHxHxHxHxHxHxHxHxH | Mitchell Dobek | −$41.00 |
| BigShark-706 | Mitchell Dobek | −$10.50 |
| phallusse | Mitchell Dobek | −$5.58 |
| 0xcd06… | Mitchell Dobek | −$2.92 |
| yifen9 | Mitchell Dobek | −$1.91 |
| 0xc7d5… | Mitchell Dobek | −$1.20 |
12 wallets held a position at the close. The 6 biggest winners took $71; the 6 biggest losers gave up $63. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
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