Yes won. Smart money backed No (1 ranked wallet, average entry 5¢) and lost. Volume $10k. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| mintblade | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| fishalive | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| GRIMDRIP | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| 0x5e4c… | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes 11% · No 90% | $787k |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Yes 11% · No 90% | $275k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026? | Yes 11% · No 90% | $237k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? | Yes 24% · No 77% | $219k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7? | Yes 91% · No 10% | $203k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | Yes 44% · No 56% | $183k |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30? | Yes 4% · No 96% | $163k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 5? | Yes 98% · No 2% | $162k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| tianjiyuyunzhilu | Yes | $35.38 |
| jkerkela | Yes | $34.24 |
| Kurumi.chan. | Yes | $24.20 |
| 0x2CA | Yes | $11.97 |
| leadernew | Yes | $9.44 |
| HHR-TEST1 | Yes | $6.70 |
| vozomnil | Yes | $6.40 |
| pupka-zalupka | Yes | $5.81 |
| Olena758 | Yes | $5.71 |
| Carabao | Yes | $4.99 |
| boofa | Yes | $4.80 |
| edgehunter32 | Yes | $4.37 |
49 wallets held a position at the close. The 27 biggest winners took $182; the 22 biggest losers gave up $136. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
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