No won. Smart money backed Yes (7 ranked wallets, average entry 20¢) and lost. Volume $153k. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| mintblade | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| fishalive | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| GRIMDRIP | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| 0x5e4c… | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes 11% · No 90% | $779k |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Yes 11% · No 90% | $275k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026? | Yes 10% · No 91% | $246k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? | Yes 24% · No 77% | $205k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7? | Yes 91% · No 10% | $201k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | Yes 43% · No 57% | $179k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 5? | Yes 99% · No 1% | $165k |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30? | Yes 4% · No 96% | $163k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| suraxy | No | $3k |
| enri.hl | No | $1k |
| JsonStatham | No | $721.35 |
| Klodegta99 | No | $530.01 |
| timeistmoney | No | $467.55 |
| 0xc1db… | No | $333.74 |
| SeniorLaghetto | No | $318.22 |
| 0xbt | No | $259.64 |
| lissartter | Yes | $233.91 |
| 0x099a…9a34 | No | $189.38 |
| hmwhynot | No | $160 |
| 0x9178… | Yes | $96 |
146 wallets held a position at the close. The 60 biggest winners took $7.9k; the 60 biggest losers gave up $7.9k. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
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