No won. Smart money backed Yes (8 ranked wallets, average entry 14¢) and lost. Volume $337k. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
Moonshot1019 took +$2.3k on No from 96¢; the biggest loser gave up $400.
See every winner & loser ↗| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| mintblade | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| fishalive | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| GRIMDRIP | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| endlessFate | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7? | Yes 99% · No 1% | $642k |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes 11% · No 90% | $249k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | Yes 57% · No 43% | $245k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? | Yes 85% · No 16% | $171k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? | Yes 20% · No 81% | $146k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026? | Yes 7% · No 94% | $83k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 15? | Yes 60% · No 41% | $71k |
| Iran leadership change by November 30? | Yes 4% · No 96% | $70k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| Moonshot1019 | No | $2k |
| MoonLambo1205 | No | $861.05 |
| december | No | $410.00 |
| fgydusggb | No | $323.98 |
| vv-vv | No | $314.57 |
| RogerFed | No | $281.77 |
| misko1 | No | $217.41 |
| 0x21d3… | No | $176.73 |
| cookedquail | No | $113.82 |
| DawnOfYemen | No | $108 |
| GodBlessYou. | No | $62.81 |
| xcvsgdd | No | $56.35 |
210 wallets held a position at the close. The 60 biggest winners took $5.7k; the 60 biggest losers gave up $2.4k. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
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