No won. Smart money backed Yes (11 ranked wallets, average entry 7¢) and lost. Volume $968k. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
Sdfghji took +$1.3k on No from 62¢; the biggest loser gave up $888.
See every winner & loser ↗| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| mintblade | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| fishalive | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| GRIMDRIP | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| endlessFate | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7? | Yes 99% · No 1% | $620k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | Yes 57% · No 43% | $246k |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes 11% · No 90% | $226k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? | Yes 85% · No 16% | $171k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? | Yes 19% · No 82% | $152k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026? | Yes 7% · No 94% | $79k |
| Iran leadership change by November 30? | Yes 3% · No 97% | $70k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 15? | Yes 60% · No 41% | $69k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| Sdfghji | No | $1k |
| Newshound | No | $852.51 |
| maglc | Yes | $685.58 |
| LiuBaolin | No | $642.10 |
| MagicEightBall | Yes | $599.02 |
| hell0pia | No | $580.81 |
| heisenbergsaysrelax7 | Yes | $509.80 |
| rwcoffee | No | $502.86 |
| Avitz33 | No | $422.19 |
| WallStreetGamer | No | $370 |
| groth | Yes | $358.37 |
| 0x4a7c… | No | $336.98 |
1,187 wallets held a position at the close. The 60 biggest winners took $14k; the 60 biggest losers gave up $13k. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
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