Yes won. Smart money backed No (6 ranked wallets, average entry 19¢) and lost. Volume $1.4M. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
jimbobianthethird took +$3.0k on No from 23¢; the biggest loser gave up $4.4k.
See every winner & loser ↗| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| mintblade | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| fishalive | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| GRIMDRIP | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| endlessFate | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7? | Yes 99% · No 1% | $620k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | Yes 57% · No 43% | $246k |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes 11% · No 90% | $226k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? | Yes 85% · No 16% | $171k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? | Yes 19% · No 82% | $152k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026? | Yes 6% · No 94% | $79k |
| Iran leadership change by November 30? | Yes 3% · No 97% | $70k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 15? | Yes 60% · No 41% | $69k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| jimbobianthethird | No | $3k |
| apple-pi | Yes | $2k |
| Imbafer | Yes | $1k |
| Ox4B7e1D3cA9825F0aC176bE29d830A54F12cD78a6 | Yes | $878.50 |
| ISureWinAll | Yes | $799.92 |
| krisxxi | Yes | $710.90 |
| ashensoul | Yes | $678.00 |
| eightpenguins | Yes | $677.70 |
| Schuk | Yes | $592.59 |
| 0xea0d… | Yes | $540 |
| 0xdc83… | Yes | $512.89 |
| yuhyuhyuhy352352 | Yes | $496.41 |
847 wallets held a position at the close. The 60 biggest winners took $20k; the 60 biggest losers gave up $26k. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
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