No won. Smart money backed Yes (7 ranked wallets, average entry 70¢) and lost. Volume $494k. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
continues took +$1.2k on No from 87¢; the biggest loser gave up $440.
See every winner & loser ↗| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| mintblade | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| fishalive | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| GRIMDRIP | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| endlessFate | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7? | Yes 99% · No 1% | $644k |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes 11% · No 90% | $249k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | Yes 57% · No 43% | $245k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? | Yes 85% · No 16% | $169k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? | Yes 20% · No 81% | $153k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026? | Yes 7% · No 94% | $85k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 15? | Yes 60% · No 41% | $71k |
| Iran leadership change by November 30? | Yes 4% · No 96% | $70k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| continues | No | $1k |
| Kenny.Powers | No | $945.01 |
| neuiwsance | Yes | $683.19 |
| Toncar16 | Yes | $588.09 |
| Sakura-Kinomoto | No | $539.17 |
| Prdz | Yes | $440.04 |
| Jujumolomojo | Yes | $258.48 |
| shangri-laa | Yes | $202.45 |
| Grokius | Yes | $191.96 |
| 23449 | Yes | $136.93 |
| keepsfailingupwards | No | $131.88 |
| KriteriTraderJoe | Yes | $128.33 |
548 wallets held a position at the close. The 60 biggest winners took $7.5k; the 60 biggest losers gave up $3.0k. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
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