No 51% · Yes 49%. Smart money leans Yes (2 ranked wallets, average entry 51¢). Volume $7.0k, liquidity $41k. Trade it on Polymarket ↗ Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
5 ranked wallets bought Yes at 51¢. It’s 49¢ now — −4% on paper.
Track all 5 wallets ↗| Market | Side | Outcome |
|---|---|---|
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 22? | SELL | No |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 22? | BUY | No |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026? | Yes 4% · No 96% | $208k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? | Yes 90% · No 11% | $207k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | Yes 58% · No 42% | $145k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? | Yes 15% · No 86% | $122k |
| Israeli airspace closed by December 31, 2026? | Yes 32% · No 68% | $88k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027? | Yes 66% · No 35% | $80k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | Yes 34% · No 66% | $63k |
| Iran leadership change by November 30? | Yes 2% · No 98% | $63k |
| Wallet | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| 881112 | Yes | 825 |
| notimeforcaution | Yes | 414 |
| Haradwaith | Yes | 190 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 54 |
| Hadikhan69 | Yes | 34 |
| pootytherewardfarmer | Yes | 27 |
| 0xde24…e804 | Yes | 20 |
| lissartter | Yes | 15 |
| ghorrock | Yes | 9 |
| 0x6f4638 | Yes | 0 |
| DerDon | No | 583 |
| balabalababalabala | No | 499 |
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