Yes won. Smart money backed No (9 ranked wallets, average entry 45¢) and lost. Volume $1.6M. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| mintblade | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| 0xed64… | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| 0x3f87… | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| 0x5e4c… | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026? | Yes 11% · No 90% | $306k |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes 18% · No 83% | $270k |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | Yes 5% · No 96% | $230k |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Yes 12% · No 89% | $225k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | Yes 40% · No 60% | $197k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? | Yes 27% · No 74% | $194k |
| Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | Yes 47% · No 54% | $107k |
| Iran leadership change by November 30? | Yes 7% · No 94% | $105k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| yuhyuhyuhy352352 | Yes | $14k |
| eCash | Yes | $10k |
| 0x4e3d… | Yes | $3k |
| MissaoComFlavio | Yes | $2k |
| shuanyang | Yes | $2k |
| 0x5144… | Yes | $1k |
| bigbluejay | Yes | $1k |
| 0x3E500 | Yes | $723.10 |
| BloodyMummer | Yes | $607.51 |
| bechamel | Yes | $569.41 |
| mrkinetiq | Yes | $568.93 |
| rui150514 | Yes | $552 |
2,104 wallets held a position at the close. The 60 biggest winners took $47k; the 60 biggest losers gave up $43k. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
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