Yes won. Smart money backed No (13 ranked wallets, average entry 37¢) and lost. Volume $8.9M. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| mintblade | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| 0xed64… | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| 0x3f87… | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| 0x5e4c… | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026? | Yes 11% · No 90% | $308k |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes 18% · No 83% | $269k |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | Yes 5% · No 96% | $233k |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Yes 12% · No 89% | $225k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | Yes 40% · No 60% | $224k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? | Yes 26% · No 75% | $206k |
| Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | Yes 47% · No 54% | $118k |
| Iran leadership change by November 30? | Yes 7% · No 94% | $104k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| BrightStars | Yes | $120k |
| yuhyuhyuhy352352 | Yes | $58k |
| TruongMyLan | Yes | $14k |
| Wickier | Yes | $11k |
| eCash | Yes | $10k |
| Moonshot1019 | No | $9k |
| Meduzinator | No | $8k |
| 0x8c66… | Yes | $6k |
| fauxios | Yes | $6k |
| eightpenguins | Yes | $5k |
| PuntPP | Yes | $5k |
| AlphaBetaGamma2357 | Yes | $4k |
4,916 wallets held a position at the close. The 60 biggest winners took $341k; the 60 biggest losers gave up $318k. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
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