Where does this data come from?

Polymarket odds, volume and liquidity from the public APIs, plus Polynyx's analytics layer: 500M+ on-chain fills rebuilt into wallet P&L, win rates and smart-money positioning, with arbitrage and market-maker bots filtered out. The wallet-level view of this market — every smart wallet by name with its P&L and trades — lives on Polynyx.

Can I make this my own dashboard?

Yes. Use this template clones the six widgets into your account; change the window, add a wallet, filter the tape to one side, and publish it as a page of its own.

Politics · Geopolitics · live

Will 40 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between November 2-November 8?

No 95% · Yes 6%. Volume $786, liquidity $11k. Trade it on Polymarket ↗ Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗

No
95%
Yes
6%
Volume
$786
Liquidity
$11k

Trade like a whale.Every smart wallet on this market by name, their entries and the live tape — on Polynyx.Trade like a whale ↗

More Geopolitics markets

US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 2, 2026?
No 96% · Yes 4% · 24h volume $275k
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?
Yes 97% · No 3% · 24h volume $159k
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
No 96% · Yes 5% · 24h volume $123k
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
No 98% · Yes 2% · 24h volume $120k
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?
No 73% · Yes 28% · 24h volume $101k
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?
Yes 99% · No 1% · 24h volume $96k

FAQ

What are the odds for “Will 40 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between November 2-November 8?” on Polymarket?: No 95% · Yes 6%, on $786 of volume. The odds-history widget charts the last month; every number refreshes on your plan's cadence — 15 minutes on Hobby, every minute on Developer.
Who is the smart money on “Will 40 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between November 2-November 8?”?: The smart-money widget lists the ranked, Sharp and Whale wallets on each side with their shares, entry prices and track records; the 'follow' line summarises which side they favour.
Where does this data come from?: Polymarket odds, volume and liquidity from the public APIs, plus Polynyx's analytics layer: 500M+ on-chain fills rebuilt into wallet P&L, win rates and smart-money positioning, with arbitrage and market-maker bots filtered out. The wallet-level view of this market — every smart wallet by name with its P&L and trades — lives on Polynyx.
Can I make this my own dashboard?: Yes. Use this template clones the six widgets into your account; change the window, add a wallet, filter the tape to one side, and publish it as a page of its own.

Part of the Geopolitics Polymarket dashboard. Browse every live market or the top wallets. Prefer code? The same data is a REST API and MCP server.

Will 40 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between November 2-November 8?

live

Will 40 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between… · odds, 1 month

Market & odds history

Current odds

Market & odds history

94.5%

Smart money by side · known shares

Smart money on a market

Nothing positive to split.

Tape · this market, $500+

Live trade tape

No trades match these filters in the current window.

Geopolitics markets by 24h volume

Live markets

Market	Odds	24h volume	Liquidity	24h change
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 2, 2026?	Yes 4% · No 96%	$275k	$79k	-5.8%
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?	Yes 97% · No 3%	$159k	$108k	4.7%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes 5% · No 96%	$123k	$652k	-1%
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Yes 2% · No 98%	$120k	$327k	0%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?	Yes 27% · No 73%	$101k	$87k	-3.5%
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?	Yes 99% · No 1%	$96k	$50k	1.5%
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 3?	Yes 99% · No 1%	$93k	$60k	2.2%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	Yes 43% · No 57%	$80k	$165k	0.7%

Order book · depth behind the odds

Order book

Yesbid 3¢ask 8¢spread 5¢mid 5.5¢

SizeBid

AskSize

403¢

8¢138

122¢

9¢20

3181¢

10¢20

20¢400

43¢19

44¢5

45¢15

46¢20

58¢30

59¢471

Biggest holders · each side

Top holders

Wallet	Outcome	Shares	Entry	Invested	All-time P&L
xtxpleasecallme	Yes	99	11¢	$11.31	$193k
Haradwaith	Yes	98	6¢	$6.27	−$421k
mustbethewater	Yes	40	18¢	$7.34	$72k
gfdgfvfvssdd	Yes	40	28¢	$11.13	−$21k
PPMT	Yes	30	10¢	$2.99	$18k
chcjcsjdlk	Yes	20	25¢	$5	−$7.18
0xc7d5…6b08	Yes	20	8¢	$1.60	$22.81
29EDa18df836aD93a8c285F97873bBE26118A8da.	Yes	19	74¢	$0.29	−$4k
Bearnaise	Yes	15	5¢	$0.75	−$639.97
zeitfi-vault-v2	Yes	11	20¢	$2.10	$2k
PavtheGreat	No	216	91¢	$195.82	−$2k
0xa5ef39	No	180			$0

Smart-money conviction · Geopolitics

Smart-money conviction

1Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 3?$44k
2US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?$30k
3Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?$24k
4Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?$23k
5US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 2, 2026?$20k
6Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?$5k
7US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?$7k
8Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 5?$3k
9US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?$1k
10Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$2k