No won. Smart money backed Yes (1 ranked wallet, average entry 33¢) and lost. Volume $1.4M. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| mintblade | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| fishalive | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| GRIMDRIP | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| endlessFate | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes 17% · No 84% | $485k |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2? | Yes 97% · No 3% | $223k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2? | Yes 99% · No 1% | $169k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 2, 2026? | Yes 3% · No 97% | $147k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | Yes 41% · No 59% | $138k |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8? | Yes 77% · No 24% | $129k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 3? | Yes 97% · No 3% | $125k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026? | Yes 13% · No 88% | $122k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| DessertFalcon | No | $6k |
| PhysGuy | No | $5k |
| John-Silver | No | $4k |
| Sylvester.the.Cat | No | $3k |
| MoonLambo1205 | No | $3k |
| 23449 | No | $3k |
| Chucklehuck | No | $2k |
| Sdfghji | No | $2k |
| Specksalam | No | $2k |
| Rebecca-95 | No | $2k |
| 0x8251… | No | $2k |
| Doomsday77 | No | $2k |
1,088 wallets held a position at the close. The 60 biggest winners took $63k; the 60 biggest losers gave up $35k. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
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