No won. Smart money backed Yes (6 ranked wallets, average entry 21¢) and lost. Volume $944k. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
timmythewhale took +$16k on No from 82¢; the biggest loser gave up $789.
See every winner & loser ↗| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| mintblade | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| fishalive | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| GRIMDRIP | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| endlessFate | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7? | Yes 99% · No 1% | $640k |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes 11% · No 90% | $249k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | Yes 56% · No 44% | $245k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? | Yes 85% · No 16% | $170k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? | Yes 20% · No 81% | $163k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026? | Yes 7% · No 94% | $86k |
| Iran leadership change by November 30? | Yes 4% · No 96% | $70k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? | Yes 69% · No 31% | $68k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| timmythewhale | No | $16k |
| KTKK | No | $854.55 |
| MoonLambo1205 | No | $558.51 |
| Sylvester.the.Cat | No | $535.32 |
| lodes | No | $503.74 |
| OxF6C33EaE7cbC1dB8f9c6F10f0a3C54E5dC7aF1b8 | No | $388.89 |
| Varoosh | No | $330.99 |
| GabiFP | No | $296.70 |
| 0x2db7… | No | $295.92 |
| 23449 | No | $293.99 |
| Prinas | No | $262.94 |
| SPY-KT | No | $235.32 |
1,752 wallets held a position at the close. The 60 biggest winners took $24k; the 60 biggest losers gave up $5.3k. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
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