Where does this data come from?

Polymarket odds, volume and liquidity from the public APIs, plus Polynyx's analytics layer: 500M+ on-chain fills rebuilt into wallet P&L, win rates and smart-money positioning, with arbitrage and market-maker bots filtered out. The wallet-level view of this market — every smart wallet by name with its P&L and trades — lives on Polynyx.

Can I make this my own dashboard?

Yes. Use this template clones the six widgets into your account; change the window, add a wallet, filter the tape to one side, and publish it as a page of its own.

Politics · Geopolitics · live

Will at least 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by November 30, 2026?

No 96% · Yes 4%. Volume $568, liquidity $11k. Trade it on Polymarket ↗ Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗

No
96%
Yes
4%
Volume
$568
Liquidity
$11k

Trade like a whale.Every smart wallet on this market by name, their entries and the live tape — on Polynyx.Trade like a whale ↗

More Geopolitics markets

US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 2, 2026?
No 98% · Yes 2% · 24h volume $227k
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?
Yes 97% · No 3% · 24h volume $153k
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
No 96% · Yes 5% · 24h volume $130k
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
No 98% · Yes 2% · 24h volume $120k
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?
Yes 98% · No 2% · 24h volume $93k
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
No 89% · Yes 12% · 24h volume $83k

FAQ

What are the odds for “Will at least 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by November 30, 2026?” on Polymarket?: No 96% · Yes 4%, on $568 of volume. The odds-history widget charts the last month; every number refreshes on your plan's cadence — 15 minutes on Hobby, every minute on Developer.
Who is the smart money on “Will at least 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by November 30, 2026?”?: The smart-money widget lists the ranked, Sharp and Whale wallets on each side with their shares, entry prices and track records; the 'follow' line summarises which side they favour.
Where does this data come from?: Polymarket odds, volume and liquidity from the public APIs, plus Polynyx's analytics layer: 500M+ on-chain fills rebuilt into wallet P&L, win rates and smart-money positioning, with arbitrage and market-maker bots filtered out. The wallet-level view of this market — every smart wallet by name with its P&L and trades — lives on Polynyx.
Can I make this my own dashboard?: Yes. Use this template clones the six widgets into your account; change the window, add a wallet, filter the tape to one side, and publish it as a page of its own.

Part of the Geopolitics Polymarket dashboard. Browse every live market or the top wallets. Prefer code? The same data is a REST API and MCP server.

Will at least 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by November 30, 2026?

live

Will at least 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any… · odds, 1 month

Market & odds history

Current odds

Market & odds history

96%

Smart money by side · known shares

Smart money on a market

Nothing positive to split.

Tape · this market, $500+

Live trade tape

No trades match these filters in the current window.

Geopolitics markets by 24h volume

Live markets

Market	Odds	24h volume	Liquidity	24h change
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 2, 2026?	Yes 3% · No 97%	$227k	$80k	-6.9%
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?	Yes 97% · No 3%	$153k	$94k	4.2%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes 5% · No 96%	$130k	$649k	-1%
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Yes 2% · No 98%	$120k	$331k	0%
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?	Yes 98% · No 2%	$93k	$46k	1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes 12% · No 89%	$83k	$324k	0%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?	Yes 27% · No 74%	$77k	$91k	-4%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	Yes 42% · No 58%	$72k	$183k	-0.2%

Order book · depth behind the odds

Order book

Yesbid 2¢ask 6¢spread 4¢mid 4¢

SizeBid

AskSize

252¢

6¢19

621¢

7¢17

8¢20

11¢20

12¢20

15¢20

16¢20

17¢20

21¢20

22¢20

Biggest holders · each side

Top holders

Wallet	Outcome	Shares	All-time P&L
xtxpleasecallme	Yes	59	$193k
GuyFromTinder	Yes	37	−$99k
Haradwaith	Yes	20	−$421k
pupka-zalupka	Yes	20	−$6k
29EDa18df836aD93a8c285F97873bBE26118A8da.	Yes	20	−$4k
0x86ca…16be	Yes	20	$48.64
2B9S	Yes	19	$97k
0x7a1c…73f1	Yes	19	$5k
richyee	Yes	17	−$18k
velorot	Yes	16	$0.01
RogerFed	No	210	−$13k
cigarettes	No	30	−$71k

Smart-money conviction · Geopolitics

Smart-money conviction

1Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?$24k
2Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?$23k
3US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?$30k
4Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 3?$18k
5US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 2, 2026?$12k
6US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?$2k
7US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?$1k