No won. Smart money backed Yes (3 ranked wallets, average entry 0¢) and lost. Volume $1.0M. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
BrightStars took +$876 on No from 99¢; the biggest loser gave up $1.0k.
See every winner & loser ↗| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| mintblade | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| fishalive | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| GRIMDRIP | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| endlessFate | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7? | Yes 99% · No 1% | $640k |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes 11% · No 90% | $249k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | Yes 56% · No 44% | $245k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? | Yes 85% · No 16% | $170k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? | Yes 20% · No 81% | $163k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026? | Yes 7% · No 94% | $86k |
| Iran leadership change by November 30? | Yes 4% · No 96% | $70k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? | Yes 69% · No 31% | $68k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| BrightStars | No | $876.02 |
| 0xf611… | No | $377.01 |
| BalancedFury | No | $348.91 |
| jklsjdwoqejasdf | No | $107.04 |
| gatou | No | $91.53 |
| marsresting | No | $18.57 |
| soll2 | No | $15.68 |
| Ty564r | No | $14.08 |
| 0x2c79… | No | $12.89 |
| Revered | No | $8.00 |
| kanhaoleaha | No | $7.28 |
| HornyBibi | Yes | $5.78 |
111 wallets held a position at the close. The 38 biggest winners took $1.9k; the 60 biggest losers gave up $1.9k. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
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