No won. Smart money backed Yes (4 ranked wallets, average entry 3¢) and lost. Volume $525k. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
elreptil took +$346 on No from 90¢; the biggest loser gave up $419.
See every winner & loser ↗| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| mintblade | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| fishalive | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| GRIMDRIP | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| endlessFate | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7? | Yes 99% · No 1% | $640k |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes 11% · No 90% | $249k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | Yes 56% · No 44% | $245k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? | Yes 85% · No 16% | $170k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? | Yes 20% · No 81% | $163k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026? | Yes 7% · No 94% | $86k |
| Iran leadership change by November 30? | Yes 4% · No 96% | $70k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? | Yes 69% · No 31% | $68k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| elreptil | No | $345.54 |
| TulipoII | No | $182.29 |
| Kokoel | No | $107.00 |
| 0xd269… | No | $106.26 |
| TronOG | No | $52.80 |
| Sardinianshepherd | No | $50.73 |
| mindeirs | No | $45.66 |
| bitdady | No | $45.35 |
| Revered | No | $42.64 |
| zj420 | No | $41.47 |
| clazzy1 | No | $40.90 |
| Ty564r | No | $40.06 |
285 wallets held a position at the close. The 60 biggest winners took $1.6k; the 60 biggest losers gave up $2.3k. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
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