No won. Smart money backed Yes (1 ranked wallet, average entry 11¢) and lost. Volume $11k. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
simpton took +$90 on No from 91¢; the biggest loser gave up $49.
See every winner & loser ↗| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| mintblade | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| fishalive | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| GRIMDRIP | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| endlessFate | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7? | Yes 99% · No 1% | $620k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | Yes 57% · No 43% | $246k |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes 11% · No 90% | $226k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? | Yes 85% · No 16% | $171k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? | Yes 19% · No 82% | $152k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026? | Yes 7% · No 94% | $79k |
| Iran leadership change by November 30? | Yes 3% · No 97% | $70k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 15? | Yes 60% · No 41% | $69k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| simpton | No | $90 |
| EMtourist | No | $81.90 |
| Anyawinsitall | No | $39 |
| Milin-dc | No | $14.87 |
| Aleksei-Ivanovich | No | $11.64 |
| 0xfe5b… | No | $10.92 |
| bubububblebutt | No | $10.33 |
| Mst-br | No | $10.20 |
| The-Defect | No | $10.05 |
| StryK4r | No | $8.31 |
| poposd | No | $5.07 |
| Mrhack210291 | No | $2.57 |
45 wallets held a position at the close. The 26 biggest winners took $312; the 19 biggest losers gave up $196. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
No ranked, Sharp or Whale wallet held this side.
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