No won. Smart money backed Yes (9 ranked wallets, average entry 40¢) and lost. Volume $298k. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
TeemuPukki took +$1.1k on No from 70¢; the biggest loser gave up $2.3k.
See every winner & loser ↗| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| mintblade | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| fishalive | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| GRIMDRIP | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| endlessFate | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7? | Yes 99% · No 1% | $654k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | Yes 55% · No 46% | $254k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? | Yes 82% · No 18% | $172k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? | Yes 19% · No 82% | $158k |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes 11% · No 90% | $144k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026? | Yes 6% · No 95% | $83k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 15? | Yes 58% · No 42% | $77k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? | Yes 70% · No 31% | $77k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| TeemuPukki | No | $1k |
| 0xc718… | Yes | $1k |
| Bikesarethebest | No | $823.81 |
| buyaoshangtou1 | No | $684.00 |
| Sylvester.the.Cat | No | $578.96 |
| neetbets | No | $522 |
| Anyawinsitall | No | $456.55 |
| Kent600 | No | $449.84 |
| KimChaewon1 | No | $367.36 |
| 0xce83… | No | $360.28 |
| EMtourist | No | $347.46 |
| 0xc01f… | No | $300.51 |
614 wallets held a position at the close. The 60 biggest winners took $14k; the 60 biggest losers gave up $12k. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
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