No won. Smart money backed Yes (3 ranked wallets, average entry 35¢) and lost. Volume $1.6M. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| 0x96cf… | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| 0xed64… | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| 0x3f87… | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| 0x5e4c… | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2? | Yes 70% · No 30% | $977k |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes 18% · No 83% | $561k |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 3? | Yes 2% · No 98% | $297k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | Yes 39% · No 61% | $223k |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | Yes 2% · No 98% | $207k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026? | Yes 11% · No 89% | $132k |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | Yes 5% · No 96% | $127k |
| Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | Yes 46% · No 55% | $115k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| SlotinCap | No | $51k |
| melonmanm | No | $4k |
| 0x56e7… | Yes | $3k |
| TruongMyLan | No | $2k |
| zengyixiong- | No | $2k |
| zengyixiong- | Yes | $2k |
| 4rfv4tv | No | $1k |
| 0x7678… | No | $1k |
| Mysaria | No | $874.36 |
| Metamah | No | $818.55 |
| utb | No | $628.41 |
| 0x47e8… | No | $624.64 |
1,028 wallets held a position at the close. The 60 biggest winners took $82k; the 60 biggest losers gave up $70k. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
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