No won. Smart money backed Yes (5 ranked wallets, average entry 16¢) and lost. Volume $38k. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
Rybkaoi took +$341 on No from 65¢; the biggest loser gave up $143.
See every winner & loser ↗| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| mintblade | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| fishalive | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| GRIMDRIP | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| endlessFate | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7? | Yes 100% · No 0% | $636k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? | Yes 86% · No 14% | $210k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | Yes 56% · No 45% | $176k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? | Yes 19% · No 82% | $169k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026? | Yes 6% · No 95% | $88k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 15? | Yes 61% · No 40% | $83k |
| Iran leadership change by November 30? | Yes 4% · No 96% | $71k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027? | Yes 66% · No 35% | $68k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| Rybkaoi | No | $340.65 |
| Rox44 | No | $150.20 |
| Coldonn101 | No | $148.44 |
| kanhaoleaha | No | $125.48 |
| ProxyOne | No | $101.02 |
| wi888 | No | $85.35 |
| AutoOdds | No | $80.76 |
| 0xfad4… | No | $80 |
| Whizzardxox | No | $76.58 |
| SickandTired | No | $42.86 |
| pkoz2 | No | $34.78 |
| 0xa8da… | No | $29.33 |
123 wallets held a position at the close. The 60 biggest winners took $1.6k; the 43 biggest losers gave up $909. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
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