No won. Smart money backed Yes (4 ranked wallets, average entry 44¢) and lost. Volume $290k. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
anotherpatrick took +$2.8k on No from 54¢; the biggest loser gave up $3.9k.
See every winner & loser ↗| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| mintblade | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| fishalive | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| GRIMDRIP | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| endlessFate | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7? | Yes 100% · No 0% | $636k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? | Yes 86% · No 14% | $210k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | Yes 56% · No 45% | $176k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? | Yes 19% · No 82% | $169k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026? | Yes 6% · No 95% | $88k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 15? | Yes 61% · No 40% | $83k |
| Iran leadership change by November 30? | Yes 4% · No 96% | $71k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027? | Yes 66% · No 35% | $68k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| anotherpatrick | No | $3k |
| Rybkaoi | No | $2k |
| most8 | No | $623.57 |
| Bitcoin150K | No | $559.48 |
| SGR1806Magnetar | No | $549.14 |
| 0x4d14… | No | $450.26 |
| plla | No | $439.43 |
| lionkinglionkinglionking | No | $433.89 |
| tukaninko | No | $422.15 |
| Levi567 | No | $389.46 |
| 0xfad4… | No | $376.09 |
| 0x720a… | No | $347.37 |
713 wallets held a position at the close. The 60 biggest winners took $17k; the 60 biggest losers gave up $16k. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
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