No 97% · Yes 3%. Smart money leans Yes (3 ranked wallets, average entry 17¢). Volume $167k. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
zirolius took +$2.9k on No from 74¢; the biggest loser gave up $2.7k.
See every winner & loser ↗| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| mintblade | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| fishalive | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| GRIMDRIP | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| endlessFate | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7? | Yes 99% · No 1% | $647k |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes 11% · No 90% | $250k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | Yes 56% · No 44% | $240k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? | Yes 85% · No 15% | $175k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? | Yes 20% · No 81% | $164k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026? | Yes 6% · No 94% | $73k |
| Iran leadership change by November 30? | Yes 4% · No 96% | $69k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 15? | Yes 60% · No 41% | $67k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| zirolius | No | $3k |
| cezarn132 | No | $2k |
| viktorurolog16 | No | $794.35 |
| tradervader | No | $601.86 |
| cocos228 | No | $489.43 |
| Greysok | No | $410.87 |
| 1792ghdasd | No | $400.97 |
| heheheh | No | $353.87 |
| 0xb7c1… | No | $184.16 |
| Dankwizart420 | No | $178.78 |
| zerosmart | No | $175.37 |
| vakulchik | No | $167.08 |
201 wallets held a position at the close. The 60 biggest winners took $10k; the 60 biggest losers gave up $4.2k. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
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