No won. Smart money backed Yes (5 ranked wallets, average entry 34¢) and lost. Volume $195k. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
zirolius took +$6.0k on No from 73¢; the biggest loser gave up $2.9k.
See every winner & loser ↗| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| mintblade | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| fishalive | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| GRIMDRIP | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| endlessFate | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7? | Yes 99% · No 1% | $640k |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes 11% · No 90% | $249k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | Yes 56% · No 44% | $245k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? | Yes 85% · No 16% | $170k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? | Yes 20% · No 81% | $163k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026? | Yes 7% · No 94% | $86k |
| Iran leadership change by November 30? | Yes 4% · No 96% | $70k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? | Yes 70% · No 31% | $68k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| zirolius | No | $6k |
| viktorurolog16 | No | $671.36 |
| KrackenSruster | No | $610.36 |
| BloodyMummer | No | $516.17 |
| leqso0410 | No | $290.95 |
| vakulchik | No | $290.11 |
| zerosmart | No | $280.74 |
| Greysok | No | $250.43 |
| leCommissaire | No | $220.07 |
| anotherpatrick | No | $214.73 |
| Jerzy | No | $210.39 |
| DoubleAgentKrasnov | No | $198.42 |
247 wallets held a position at the close. The 60 biggest winners took $12k; the 60 biggest losers gave up $6.1k. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
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