Yes won. Volume $76k. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
samgau took +$12k on No from 6¢; the biggest loser gave up $12k.
See every winner & loser ↗| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| mintblade | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| fishalive | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| GRIMDRIP | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| endlessFate | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7? | Yes 99% · No 1% | $642k |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes 11% · No 90% | $249k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | Yes 57% · No 43% | $245k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? | Yes 85% · No 16% | $171k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? | Yes 20% · No 81% | $146k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026? | Yes 7% · No 94% | $83k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 15? | Yes 60% · No 41% | $71k |
| Iran leadership change by November 30? | Yes 4% · No 96% | $70k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| samgau | No | $12k |
| arb-dog0 | Yes | $30.73 |
| 0x0e86… | Yes | $19.11 |
| dsjkfbc | Yes | $17.78 |
| PashaAsOracul | Yes | $8.81 |
| BEHOM | Yes | $8.40 |
| black4562 | Yes | $8.24 |
| 0x0e66… | Yes | $8.05 |
| leadernew | Yes | $3.73 |
| chipwaver | Yes | $3.50 |
| Benuptoshenanigns | Yes | $2.86 |
| Feracios | Yes | $2.73 |
46 wallets held a position at the close. The 28 biggest winners took $12k; the 18 biggest losers gave up $12k. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
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