No 97% · Yes 3%. Smart money leans Yes (1 ranked wallet, average entry 14¢). Volume $57k. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
devin.lawson.77 took +$1.2k on No from 94¢; the biggest loser gave up $300.
See every winner & loser ↗| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| mintblade | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| fishalive | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| GRIMDRIP | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| endlessFate | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7? | Yes 99% · No 1% | $676k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | Yes 56% · No 44% | $267k |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes 11% · No 90% | $251k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? | Yes 85% · No 16% | $182k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? | Yes 20% · No 81% | $164k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026? | Yes 7% · No 94% | $82k |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Yes 2% · No 98% | $70k |
| US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 30? | Yes 17% · No 84% | $70k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| devin.lawson.77 | No | $1k |
| patientman | No | $243.21 |
| TheOne777 | No | $44.10 |
| a4385 | No | $24.34 |
| Krass | No | $21.78 |
| fledger | No | $18.46 |
| 0x633f… | No | $17.41 |
| chingata | No | $17.08 |
| NAA | Yes | $15.02 |
| Newshound | No | $15.00 |
| 0x7623… | Yes | $14.75 |
| daniljacent1 | No | $8.99 |
108 wallets held a position at the close. The 43 biggest winners took $1.7k; the 60 biggest losers gave up $826. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
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