Yes won. Smart money backed Yes (6 ranked wallets, average entry 50¢) and won. Volume $567k. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
Bgf56 took +$21k on Yes from 54¢; the biggest loser gave up $1.8k.
See every winner & loser ↗| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| mintblade | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| fishalive | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| GRIMDRIP | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| endlessFate | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 launch by November 30, 2026? | Yes 94% · No 6% | $2k |
| Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 launch by November 15, 2026? | Yes 44% · No 56% | $707.68 |
| How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026? | <5 73% · 5-6 21% · 9-10 1% | $510.70 |
| Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 achieve a successful splashdown? | Yes 53% · No 48% | $397.64 |
| Will Waymo launch in Pittsburgh, PA by December 31 2026? | Yes 4% · No 96% | $388.36 |
| How many SpaceX launches in 2026? | 140-159 77% · 120-139 19% · 180-199 5% | $306.92 |
| Will two SpaceX Starships dock together by December 31, 2027? | Yes 65% · No 36% | $270.21 |
| How many cities will Waymo operate in by December 31? | 12-15 71% · 16-19 18% · <12 4% | $262.93 |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| Bgf56 | Yes | $21k |
| vrg1 | Yes | $2k |
| IwillWin | Yes | $563.12 |
| ManCangGangGanDaDanGan | Yes | $479.08 |
| antwerpen | No | $439.00 |
| AxeCapIntern | Yes | $427.22 |
| sayanghae | Yes | $423.15 |
| Vanquish | Yes | $403.13 |
| Kura1101 | Yes | $397.46 |
| tdmilk | Yes | $374.96 |
| Pog | Yes | $310.95 |
| Dr.Harambe | Yes | $301.65 |
637 wallets held a position at the close. The 60 biggest winners took $33k; the 60 biggest losers gave up $7.5k. The ranked wallets were on the winning side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
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