No won. Smart money backed Yes (7 ranked wallets, average entry 2¢) and lost. Volume $822k. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
MistahFox took +$675 on No from 91¢; the biggest loser gave up $242.
See every winner & loser ↗| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| mintblade | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| fishalive | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| GRIMDRIP | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| endlessFate | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 launch by November 30, 2026? | Yes 94% · No 6% | $2k |
| Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 launch by November 15, 2026? | Yes 57% · No 43% | $878.20 |
| How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026? | <5 73% · 5-6 21% · 9-10 1% | $510.70 |
| Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 achieve a successful splashdown? | Yes 54% · No 46% | $397.64 |
| Will Waymo launch in Pittsburgh, PA by December 31 2026? | Yes 4% · No 96% | $388.36 |
| How many SpaceX launches in 2026? | 140-159 77% · 120-139 19% · 180-199 5% | $306.92 |
| Will two SpaceX Starships dock together by December 31, 2027? | Yes 65% · No 36% | $270.21 |
| How many cities will Waymo operate in by December 31? | 12-15 71% · 16-19 18% · <12 4% | $262.93 |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| MistahFox | No | $675.20 |
| tja | No | $351.94 |
| 0x62b4… | Yes | $129.71 |
| ooops | No | $102.05 |
| SBED | No | $45.32 |
| Aslan | No | $45.13 |
| Victor1997 | Yes | $36.65 |
| 0x42d0… | Yes | $26.60 |
| jaychou1 | Yes | $24.96 |
| GingerMcKenna | No | $24.83 |
| jadebasilisk | No | $24 |
| GlitchMob | Yes | $23.82 |
527 wallets held a position at the close. The 60 biggest winners took $1.9k; the 60 biggest losers gave up $2.6k. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
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