No won. Volume $292k. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
kroko took +$25 on Yes from 1¢; the biggest loser gave up $231.
See every winner & loser ↗| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| mintblade | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| fishalive | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| GRIMDRIP | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| endlessFate | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps increase 77% · No change 22% · 50+ bps decrease 1% | $223k |
| How many Fed rate cuts in 2026? | 0 (0 bps) 98% · 1 (25 bps) 1% · 2 (50 bps) 0% | $15k |
| Another Fed rate hike in 2026? | Yes 76% · No 25% | $12k |
| How many Fed rate hikes in 2026? | 2 (50 bps) 75% · 1 (25 bps) 23% | $10k |
| Fed Decision in January? | No change 74% · 25 bps increase 19% · 25 bps decrease 4% | $9k |
| Fed Decision in March? | No change 56% · 25 bps increase 36% · 50+ bps decrease 2% | $5k |
| Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the December interest rate announcement? | Yes 73% · No 27% | $5k |
| Swiss National Bank Decision in March? | No Change 49% · 25 bps increase 37% | $3k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| kroko | Yes | $25.30 |
| podairpod | No | $18.03 |
| taut-dogwood | No | $17.64 |
| 0xa894… | No | $14.20 |
| QMG-VOL | No | $4.75 |
| 0x16f6… | No | $4.55 |
| 0xd8db… | Yes | $4.51 |
| grizozi | No | $4.28 |
| blablabel | Yes | $4.25 |
| GingerMcKenna | No | $4.24 |
| MrAndMsClaude | No | $3.03 |
| quiddy | No | $2.76 |
93 wallets held a position at the close. The 47 biggest winners took $156; the 46 biggest losers gave up $855. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
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