No won. Smart money backed Yes (8 ranked wallets, average entry 4¢) and lost. Volume $468k. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
saltwf11 took +$55 on Yes from 10¢; the biggest loser gave up $183.
See every winner & loser ↗| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| mintblade | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| fishalive | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| GRIMDRIP | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| endlessFate | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps increase 77% · No change 22% · 50+ bps decrease 1% | $325k |
| Another Fed rate hike in 2026? | Yes 76% · No 25% | $28k |
| How many Fed rate cuts in 2026? | 0 (0 bps) 98% · 1 (25 bps) 1% · 3 (75 bps) 0% | $22k |
| How many Fed rate hikes in 2026? | 2 (50 bps) 76% · 1 (25 bps) 23% · 3 (75 bps) 1% | $17k |
| Fed Decision in January? | No change 73% · 25 bps increase 19% · 25 bps decrease 4% | $16k |
| Fed decisions (Sep–Dec) | Hike–Pause–Hike 76% · Hike–Pause–Pause 22% · Other 1% | $14k |
| Bank of Canada Decision in December? | No Change 74% · 25 bps increase 27% | $8k |
| Fed decisions (Oct-Jan) | Pause-Hike-Pause 71% · Pause-Pause-Hike 12% · Pause-Hike-Hike 7% | $5k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| saltwf11 | Yes | $54.58 |
| twice-frame | Yes | $53.76 |
| homexj70 | Yes | $51.65 |
| arrestPolar | Yes | $48.21 |
| 0x9e4d… | Yes | $47.55 |
| Mobile4450 | No | $22.10 |
| blameGesture | Yes | $18.72 |
| photo6474 | No | $16.96 |
| onlyBuild | Yes | $16.48 |
| review.domain.client | Yes | $13.43 |
| taut-dogwood | No | $12.95 |
| Promote-Indicate | Yes | $12.09 |
198 wallets held a position at the close. The 60 biggest winners took $595; the 60 biggest losers gave up $1.2k. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
Economics's smart-money board and the live whale tape — every wallet by name, with its entries — the free layer under this dashboard.
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