No won. Smart money backed Yes (6 ranked wallets, average entry 1¢) and lost. Volume $426k. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
JordanMooney took +$65 on No from 91¢; the biggest loser gave up $400.
See every winner & loser ↗| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| mintblade | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| fishalive | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| GRIMDRIP | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| endlessFate | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7? | Yes 100% · No 0% | $636k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? | Yes 85% · No 16% | $210k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | Yes 55% · No 46% | $176k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? | Yes 19% · No 82% | $169k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026? | Yes 6% · No 95% | $88k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 15? | Yes 61% · No 39% | $83k |
| Iran leadership change by November 30? | Yes 4% · No 96% | $71k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027? | Yes 66% · No 35% | $68k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| JordanMooney | No | $65.07 |
| rajugg | Yes | $64.42 |
| betsalel358 | Yes | $59.46 |
| CriptanTDA | Yes | $41.62 |
| Ersicolus | Yes | $20.94 |
| akko123 | Yes | $7.33 |
| 0x5695… | Yes | $6.97 |
| 0xac38… | Yes | $5.50 |
| 0x9bbd… | No | $3.57 |
| Tuk007 | No | $2.88 |
| geminix | Yes | $1.60 |
| win-at-all-cost | No | $1.50 |
100 wallets held a position at the close. The 19 biggest winners took $287; the 60 biggest losers gave up $682. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
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